Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.030371 0.034555 0.039126 0.044493 0.050628 0.057427 0.065540
2025-02-09 0.024350 0.030173 0.037113 0.046010 0.057139 0.070631 0.088282
2025-02-16 0.020384 0.026742 0.034776 0.045703 0.060233 0.078961 0.105053
2025-02-23 0.017809 0.024477 0.033315 0.045936 0.063584 0.087513 0.122644
2025-03-02 0.015574 0.022278 0.031534 0.045316 0.065445 0.093964 0.137782
2025-03-09 0.014244 0.021120 0.030971 0.046207 0.069353 0.103482 0.158146
2025-03-16 0.012785 0.019579 0.029639 0.045739 0.071086 0.109836 0.174293
2025-03-23 0.012024 0.018980 0.029609 0.047176 0.075782 0.121042 0.199083
2025-03-30 0.010716 0.017383 0.027860 0.045688 0.075617 0.124465 0.211490
2025-04-06 0.009768 0.016258 0.026734 0.045058 0.076727 0.129968 0.227828
2025-04-13 0.008733 0.014888 0.025069 0.043340 0.075780 0.131844 0.237939
2025-04-20 0.008390 0.014650 0.025266 0.044815 0.080484 0.143872 0.267427
2025-04-27 0.008055 0.014408 0.025455 0.046333 0.085491 0.157073 0.300848
2025-05-04 0.007734 0.014161 0.025612 0.047813 0.090586 0.170973 0.337255
2025-05-11 0.007186 0.013448 0.024856 0.047501 0.092233 0.178494 0.361895
2025-05-18 0.006768 0.012934 0.024418 0.047743 0.094956 0.188322 0.392241
2025-05-25 0.006278 0.012240 0.023573 0.047098 0.095827 0.194521 0.415661
2025-06-01 0.006018 0.011969 0.023520 0.048025 0.099981 0.207775 0.455634
2025-06-08 0.005623 0.011393 0.022812 0.047538 0.101116 0.214817 0.482692
2025-06-15 0.005467 0.011290 0.023044 0.049034 0.106627 0.231724 0.533925
2025-06-22 0.005023 0.010550 0.021904 0.047484 0.105311 0.233550 0.550361
2025-06-29 0.004701 0.010041 0.021206 0.046829 0.105919 0.239704 0.577710
2025-07-06 0.004306 0.009343 0.020046 0.045041 0.103764 0.239324 0.589095